WJR September 2010 Reports

 
 
For an explanation of "fair value" please click on the "Any Questions" tab to the left 

September 3, 2010

It’s the First Friday of the month – and that, of course, means that the financial world will revolve around the Labor Department’s Unemployment Report at 8:30 this morning. The consensus estimate is that the economy dropped another 90,000 non-farm jobs in August. However individual analyst estimates range anywhere from a 160,000 drop to a jobs INcrease of 75,000 jobs. Once again, the retirement of temporary government census jobs is getting the blame. The overall Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 9.6 percent.

A couple of points of intrigue here – the White House has scheduled a speech at 10 o’clock – possibly to discuss either really good jobs news (or really bad.) Also, the late rally we saw in stocks yesterday may be indicative of a little short covering as the shorts try to protect themselves from a positive surprise in the number.

There must have been a lot of tax preparers eating donuts last quarter. Late yesterday, H&R Block and Krispy Kreme both turned in better than expected results for the past three months. Krispy Kreme earned 8 cents per share, which doubled estimates. Block lost 36 cents per share, which was a nickel better than expected.

Moderately positive numbers in most overseas markets overnight. We’re hovering right around the flat-line until the 8:30 Jobs Report.

At this point, adjusted for fair value, S&P 500 futures are down a half-point, the Dow futures are down 11, but the NASDAQ futures are just about even with fair value. 

September 2, 2010

We’ll be hearing from the major retailers this morning about their August traffic, and so far, so good.

Costco led the parade with August same store sales up about 7 percent.  That was better than expected. Also reporting better-than-expected sales were Macy’s, up 4.3 percent, and Limited, with sales up 10 percent versus the expected 7.3 percent.

Target was just a touch lower than expected, missing the estimated two percent increase by two-tenths of one percent. BJ’s Wholesale is also out with a disappointing report.

Shares of Burger King are set to sizzle a bit this morning. Burger King shareholders are being offered $24 per share by Investment company 3G.  That’s about a 27 percent premium to yesterday’s close.

The European Central Bank, as expected, held short term interest rates unchanged at one percent this morning.

The July Factory Orders Report is due at 10 o’clock. Expect an increase there of four-tenths of one percent.

Our futures took a little turn higher about an hour ago, although the weekly Jobless Claims Report at 8:30 will likely determine our direction at 9:30. Most Asian markets rose overnight. European markets are essentially flat. At this point, adjusted for fair value, S&P 500 futures are up 1½, the Dow futures are up only 5 points, and the NASDAQ futures are 2 points above fair value. 

September 1, 2010

 It’s one of those blah-blah-blah mornings. By now, you’ve no doubt heard that August was the worst August we’ve seen in the stock market in 9 years. And how about the statistic that September has been the worst single month for stock returns over the past 20 years. And now, of course, even Tony Robbins has discovered that predicting financial disaster gets you lots of attention, which can eventually help sell books. Blah, blah, blah.

Let’s review some stats that might be a bit more relevant. This morning, the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas released the results of their monthly survey of layoff announcements. Turns out that fewer jobs were cut in August than any month in the past ten years. The 34,000 reported layoff announcements were 65% lower than August 2009.

Mortgage applications were up 2.7 percent last month. Both purchase and refi apps were higher. The average interest rate of 4.43% was the lowest since the Mortgage Bankers Association survey has been around.

Heinz reported earnings that were two cents better than the 73 cent estimate.

On the famous flip-side, August Car Sales Reports will be coming in all day long. It’s expected to have been the slowest August for sales in 18 years.

Chinese stocks slipped a bit, but most other markets overseas are nicely higher. Not much of a fair value adjustment this morning, with S&P 500 futures are up almost 11 points, the Dow futures are up 78, and the NASDAQ futures are about 23 points above fair value. 

INDEX
  • WJR September 2010 Reports
  • WJR August 2010 Reports
  • WJR July 2010 Reports
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